As inflation surges to levels not seen since the 1980’s, home buyers dreams are slashed. Diana Click for CNBC states “It is clearly due to the plunging affordability,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors.
Home purchase mortgage applications were 19% lower than the same week in July last year, and 6% lower than the prior week. Those numbers are a direct reflection of the impact inflation is having on our economy.
Volatility is a word commonly used this year to describe the mortgage rate pace over the past year. In an article titled Mortgage Rates Hit 6%. World is Not Ending. May Just Be Beginning, written by Matthew Graham for Mortgage News Daily, he provides notable details and graphs that provide insights into what has prompted this volatility.
Inflation pace is the fastest it has been in more than 40 years. Unprecedented, historical, and painful. It is a pain that everyone is feeling, however some more than others.
In a recent CNBC interview, Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George noted that the Fed is looking to tighten financial conditions, of which equity markets are a component, in an effort to tamp down price increases running at their fastest pace in more than 40 years.
In a recent article submitted by Diana Olick on CNBC, she reports that weekly mortgage demand from homebuyers tumbled 12%, as higher interest rates take their toll. She makes these key points:
If you have kept an eye on mortgage interest rates as they climb to the highest point in years, it’s no surprise to read this article on MortgageNewsDaily state “The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest weekly mortgage application data shows an ongoing and unsurprising decline in refinance applications.” In light of increased prices and rising rates it is interesting to note that purchase application volume is only seeing a slight decline.
This spike is a result of rising inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 8.5% which is the highest level since 1981. The Federal Reserve starting rate hikes in March was the first increase since 2018. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue with rate hikes due to current aggressive inflation.
Rapidly rising mortgage interest rates are having a direct impact on mortgage application volumes, particularly for mortgage refinance applications. In an article by Adam DeSanctis for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) “The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 14 percent from the previous week and was 54 percent lower than the same week one year ago.”
According to an article written by Matthew Graham for Mortgage News Daily “Adults who are old enough to remember 1994 have always had an ace in the hole when it comes to today’s young whipper snappers complaining about abrupt spikes in mortgage rates. Sure, even older adults have the first few months of 1980, but 1994 was a more compelling example because it wasn’t part of the once-in-a-lifetime inflationary spike. As such, it is a more worthy comparison to any modern example of rate volatility. As of today, the race between the first few months of 1994 and 2022 are neck and neck in terms of damage done to mortgage rates in a short amount of time.”