According to the latest data from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) the share of adults planning a home purchase in the next 12 months dropped to 13% in the final quarter of 2022. This is down from 15% in the previous quarter and is not surprising, given that housing affordability worsened during this period, as mortgage interest rates surpassed 7.0% and reached levels not seen in nearly 20 years.
In an article written by Sarah O’Brien for CNBC, she quotes a National Assoc. of Realtors article that states “Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price.”
The highly competitive home buyers market spanning the past few years has left the majority of buyers with a notable feeling of buyers remorse. The primary causes of the regrets are a result of:
This spike is a result of rising inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 8.5% which is the highest level since 1981. The Federal Reserve starting rate hikes in March was the first increase since 2018. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will continue with rate hikes due to current aggressive inflation.
According to an article written by Matthew Graham for Mortgage News Daily “Adults who are old enough to remember 1994 have always had an ace in the hole when it comes to today’s young whipper snappers complaining about abrupt spikes in mortgage rates. Sure, even older adults have the first few months of 1980, but 1994 was a more compelling example because it wasn’t part of the once-in-a-lifetime inflationary spike. As such, it is a more worthy comparison to any modern example of rate volatility. As of today, the race between the first few months of 1994 and 2022 are neck and neck in terms of damage done to mortgage rates in a short amount of time.”
There are many factors that affect home buyer and seller sentiment. Confidence, or lack thereof, in the economic future is a key consideration for both. In Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey (NHS) seller sentiment is 36 point higher than October 2020, with buyer sentiment 60 points lower for the same period, in spite of the fact that interest rates remain low which is an advantage to buyers.
Surging home prices and strong demand caused a three month reduction in single family homes sales, but this trend was reversed with a small 1% increase in July.
If you’ve found yourself confused by recent headlines relating to mortgage interest rate, you are not alone! When reliable sources report contradictory information, even the leaders in the industry are left scratching their heads.
A recent article by CNBC.com provides an excellent overview of the details that report a historic increase in existing home sales in June over May. The key points they present include respected sources like the National Association of Realtors:
What makes a residential property interesting to you may be quite different than what makes a property interesting to your friends, family, neighbor or co-worker. We aren’t talking about your typical home, we’re talking about uniquely interesting homes. Maybe who owns it or owned it makes it interesting, like the homes of the rich and famous. Maybe the original architect is notorious. Or maybe there is some other surprise that makes a home unique.